CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 14/02 - 06Z SUN 15/02 2004
ISSUED: 13/02 19:21Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There are no thunderstorms forecast.

SYNOPSIS

High-amplitude upper flow pattern is present across Europe ... with a large upper ridge anchored over western Europe and the northeastern Atlantic ... and a deep extensive long-wave trough over eastern portions of Europe ... extending deep into the SE Mediterranean regions. At the W periphery of this trough ... several vort maxima are expected to pivot southwards during the period ... primarily affecting NE and E European States. Closed upper low ATTM off the Iberian Atlantic coast ... is progged to continue SE ... and to graze the southern parts of the peninsula. Another ... nearly stationary upper cut-off low is lingering over the southern portions of the UK. At low levels ... cold polar air masses are dominating the eastern half of the forecast area ... with some low-level theta-e advection occurring over the S Iberian Peninsula ahead of the upper low.

DISCUSSION

...South Iberia...
It looks that UVV's ahead of the Iberian upper low will increase some ... which may support a few TSTMS ... however ... air mass is currently sampled quite poorly by rawinsonde data ... but indications are that low-level moisture is confined to quite a shallow SFC-based layer. Moisture influx into S Spain will cease per 850 hPa theta-e/wind vector analyses during the period ... and it is questionable that low-level moisture will strengthen enough to support appreciable convective threat. Current thinking is that a few lightning strikes may occur ... but that activity will be too isolated for a GEN THUNDER outlook.

...E Mediterranean...
Shallow cellular convection will likely persist over the eastern portions of the Mediterranean Sea. An isolated CG or two may accompany this activity ... but TSTM threat will likely be too low to necessitate a GEN THUNDER area.

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